Concerns about how "to hit" is calculated

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revjwh
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Concerns about how "to hit" is calculated

Post by revjwh »

It seems the monsters in this game hit way too much.

I will have Predator eyes up, Bless and have a 14 in unarmed at level 7 and my "to hit" will be around 67+ % yet I'll hit once out of every 3-4 times.

Meanwhile, the monsters will have a 25% chance and hit me 3 out of 4 times... on a consistent, regular basis. It doesn't matter what type of monster: thug, drone, goblin, slime.... I can be in pitch darkness with them and be told they have a 27% versus my 70% and they hit me 50% more per individual creature....

?????
acoustibop
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Post by acoustibop »

First, does the status panel on the middle left say you're Hidden in Shadows, revjwh? Secondly, if you're getting hit when you're Hidden, move a step. The monsters often sus out where you are and start hitting you: moving you hides you again.
silverkitty
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Post by silverkitty »

that has little to do with what he's talking about, however.

he's not talking about whether or not monsters engage him at all, but their odds of hitting once the engagement is underway. he's saying that it feels like the dice are weighted - that the percentages listed by the game aren't actually what's being used in the underlying engine.

(I have no opinion either way at the moment on the topic, I'm just trying to correct a misunderstanding in communication)
revjwh
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Post by revjwh »

Silverkitty, you've got it.

In combat, at night, not hiding in shadows, the percentages shown are, for example:

Thug 26% Me 67%

I'll hit maybe 2 times out of 5 sometimes 3

The thug? Almost 80%. Not sometimes. Always.

Every monster I meet does this... and it is consistent. They hit at a 75-95% hit ratio no matter WHAT the text says at the bottom.

I can post whatever stats are needed, but this is not normal. It definitely isn't what the text is telling me.

How are "to hit" rolls actually calculated??
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BasiliskWrangler
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Post by BasiliskWrangler »

The manual explains it fairly well:

We assume that anytime you want to hit a creature, you start with a 50% that your attack will be successful. We then add in your weapon skill and ToHit modifiers, then we subtract the target's Armor Rating and defensive bonuses. The resulting number is your % chance to hit. It is then checked against a random 1-100 roll.

The exact same function is used for player vs. NPC and NPC vs. player, so there is no way NPCs attacking get anymore of an attack advantage over then player.

This has been questioned before. I can assure you the function has been examined and tested countless times to ensure it's accurate. Also, some other players here who have developed elite characters can confirm that when an enemy has a 5% chance ToHit them, they are definitely not getting hit 75% of the time.
jfiemmpa
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Post by jfiemmpa »

True, but when a plain goblin with 2% to hit me, gets me twice in a fight and I take 5 hits at 70% to kill him(and i am doing like 20 damage a shot) it seems a little supiscious.


and i often have 98% to hit these days, yet still seem to miss evry third or fourth shot.

I am still kicking butt even when surrounded, it just seems the numbers are off.


except for the ghosts in the ossuary, I can spawn a dozen off them, and kill them all without taking a single hit.
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Post by BasiliskWrangler »

jfiemmpa- if you want to send me a saved game (preferably right before entering a fight that you feel is giving you bad ToHit ratios) I can examine what's going on. Perhaps there is a rare combination of factors that is causing a skew in the ToHit percentile.
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Post by VPeric »

jfiemmpa wrote:True, but when a plain goblin with 2% to hit me, gets me twice in a fight and I take 5 hits at 70% to kill him(and i am doing like 20 damage a shot) it seems a little supiscious.
Hmm, random number generators are always a bit iffy, but I very much doubt the game is trying to screw you over. Furthermore, any fluctuations due to the inherent nature of the pseudo-RNGs we use will average themselves out (since the same RNG is used for you and your opponents).

Anyway: when you're throwing a coin, the chances of it being tails is 50%, right? But if you throw it 5 times and get tails each time, does that mean the chance is actually 100%? No, it just means you got a rare event - the 50% still stands (to be exact, the chances of getting tails five times in a row is 1/32 ~ 3%).
JozenOne
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Post by JozenOne »

I have seen this a lot.

There MUST be a bug in there somewhere.

I'm consistently beaten down by creatures that should hit at most 1 in 4, or even 1 in 50. Even creatures that have equal to-hit hit 2 or 3 times to my 1.

with 2% to hit, the chances of scoring 5-6 successive hits are insanely low, but it happens all the time.
Ikarius
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Post by Ikarius »

I can note that I've seen a LOT of "miss" runs when I am attacking creatures ranging from 3 - 8 misses in a row when the to-hit for me shown is 70% or better. It also seems to happen most frequently when there are multiple creatures fighting me at the same time.

The frequency of hits on creatures where I'm at 50% or less to-hit seems to be right, though I generally avoid fighting more than one of those at the same time.


As far as critters hitting me, I'm not sure anymore, I like running around in the dark with predator sight anymore :twisted:

--Ikarius
rickardsh
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Re: Concerns about how "to hit" is calculated

Post by rickardsh »

Gentlemen:

It is fine to say that "it's not supposed to work that way" but there are enough of us experiencing this to tell you that there is something going on. I'm not in the shadows or anything else exceptional. Just say you don't know. Don't say it isn't happening. I enjoy the game; I have played 7 or 8 times with different character attributes each time; the results are always the same as what has been presented. Just don't tell us it isn't happening.

I had a computer support person at one of the companies I worked for. He would come to look at a problem, and respond "it's not supposed to work that way." He would then leave under the assumption that he had repaired the problem. Needless to say, he had done nothing, so I would have to call back and request they send a technician other than Bob.
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Re: Concerns about how "to hit" is calculated

Post by Unclever title »

What's really needed though is some honest to goodness empirical testing.

I mean it's one thing to say what's happening with the character. I also got the impression that enemies have a bit of an edge in hitting but the thing is that when you score multiple hits in a row it is probably less noticeable than when you miss multiple times in a row because you're end goal is to bring your opponents hp to 0 and so the impression may be a little off. I would do this myself, but I lack the time and proper motivation. :mrgreen:
krisklef
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Re: Concerns about how "to hit" is calculated

Post by krisklef »

My experience:

I struggled with reconciling my perception with the "to-hit" percentages listed, but one day noticed that I frequently hit for no damage. Looking at the main screen, no blood, no floating numbers, I thought "d@^^n, missed AGAIN!! How can this be happening day after day?" But wen I looked at the little scroll of text at the bottom of the screen, I noticed that the hits were often for no damage. Taking those into account, I felt like my percentages were more in line with the printed ones.

EDIT--no answer for why monsters seem to hit more often than percentages would indicate.
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